Most tax calculators frame the realization question as a simple tradeoff: pay less now or more later. That framing misses the role of risk, which turns out to be central. If your asset drops below its cost basis, there’s no future tax to pay at all. If it rises sharply, the tax deferral was worth more than you expected. A sound analysis needs to account for all possible paths, not just one assumed outcome.
This calculator uses a risk-adjusted framework that accounts for uncertainty in future asset prices and finds the realization strategy that maximizes your expected after-tax wealth. It also shows how the answer changes across horizons, which is often the single most important variable in the decision.
For the full analysis, see our research note: To Realize, or Not to Realize.
Adjust the inputs and click Run! to compute.