QSBS Sell-vs-Hold Analysis
Benefit of Immediate Sale vs. Terminal Realization (Risk-adjusted dollar gain at T)
Results
Optimal Fraction to Sell
72%
at t=0
Benefit at Optimal
+$1.04M
Risk-adjusted dollar gain at T vs. hold-all · +3.91% p.a.
Optimal Equity Reinvestment
7.3%
of liquid proceeds
Human Capital
$2.87M
labor $2.57M @ 9.26% + pension $0.31M @ 4.0%
Total Wealth W(0)
$10.4M
Position $8M + HC $2.87M + Other $0.00M
QSBS Regime
Holding period
2.0 → 5.0 yr
today → at T · pre-OBBBA
§1202 exclusion
0% → 100%
now → at T
Per-issuer cap
$10.0M
max($10M, 10× basis)
Calibration
Income Vol (annual)
19.4%
calibrated from lifetime Cumulative Volatility
Human Capital equity β
0.324
β = ρ·σ_inc/σ_mkt = 0.30·19.4%/18%